Deloitte Forecasts 9% Ecommerce Growth for 2025 Holiday Season Amid Slowing Retail
Deloitte projects 7-9% ecommerce sales growth during the 2025 holiday shopping season, reaching up to $310.7 billion while overall retail slows, highlighting the continued dominance of online shopping.
Deloitte's latest forecast indicates that ecommerce sales during the 2025 holiday shopping season, spanning November 2025 through January 2026, are expected to grow between 7% and 9% compared to the same period in 2024. This projected growth would translate to online sales reaching between $305 billion and $310.7 billion, continuing the trend of ecommerce outperforming overall retail sales growth year after year.
The significance of this forecast lies in the contrast between ecommerce's robust performance and the anticipated slowdown in total retail sales. While traditional brick-and-mortar stores face challenges, online platforms are positioned to capture an increasing share of consumer spending during the critical holiday period. This divergence underscores the ongoing shift in consumer behavior toward digital shopping channels and the importance of ecommerce strategies for retailers.
Companies operating major ecommerce platforms, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., are expected to benefit significantly from this growth trend. The forecast suggests that sellers on these platforms are preparing to maximize their returns during the upcoming shopping season, leveraging the projected increase in online consumer activity.
The continued outperformance of ecommerce relative to overall retail highlights the structural changes occurring in the retail landscape. As consumers increasingly favor the convenience and selection offered by online shopping, traditional retailers must adapt their strategies to remain competitive. The holiday sales projections serve as an important indicator for investors and industry participants monitoring the evolution of retail consumption patterns.