Stonegate Capital Partners Initiates Coverage on Fold Holdings, Highlights Bitcoin Credit Card as Growth Catalyst

Stonegate Capital Partners has initiated coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD), highlighting the company's continued growth trajectory and strategic positioning in the cryptocurrency financial services market. The coverage comes as Fold delivered $7.4 million in revenue with $265 million in total transaction volume for the quarter, representing approximately 41% year-over-year growth in transaction volumes and nearly 50% top-line growth over the previous year.

The company's operating metrics showed significant momentum, with over 10,000 net new accounts and 3,000 new verified accounts added during the period. Management emphasized that the quarter reflected improving operating leverage with focused, disciplined spending on distribution and product development. Notably, headcount has roughly doubled year-over-year while maintaining margins, demonstrating early operating leverage in the business model.

Fold's product expansion strategy appears to be gaining traction, particularly with the recent Bitcoin Gift Card launch now available in approximately 2,000 Kroger locations. This retail distribution creates a mainstream on-ramp outside the Fold app, with management describing it as the first step toward an expansive retailer footprint. The company has also partnered with Steak 'n Shake to reward customers with $5 Bitcoin Gift Cards, providing a scalable path for broad retail distribution. Management indicated that unit economics are already positive at the product level, with the focus now shifting to scaling distribution across these channels.

The most significant growth catalyst identified in the coverage is Fold's Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card, developed in partnership with Visa and Stripe to deliver what the company describes as a premium, bitcoin-native credit experience. The card offers rewards up to 3.5 percent on every purchase with no categories or deposit requirements, plus bonus earnings up to 10 percent at top brands in the Fold network. With a waitlist exceeding 80,000 potential customers, management targets initial distribution by year-end and general access in the first quarter of 2026. The credit card is positioned to capture greater wallet share than debit options and transform everyday spending into durable engagement that cross-sells into trading and custody services.

Financially, Fold maintained a strong capital position with ₿1,526 in its investment treasury as of the third quarter, supporting a Bitcoin NAV of approximately $160 million. The company views its Bitcoin treasury as a differentiated, lower-cost source of growth capital compared to traditional equity issuance or term debt. During the quarter, Fold secured a $45 million revolving credit facility to support future growth initiatives and strengthen its financial position, complementing existing funding options including a $250 million equity purchase facility tied to product momentum and market conditions.

Stonegate's valuation analysis utilizes two comparative approaches, with a blended EV/Revenue analysis arriving at a valuation range of $5.42 to $7.71 and an EV/BTC NAV analysis suggesting a range of $5.23 to $8.65. The coverage suggests that Fold's strategic initiatives, particularly the Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card and expanding retail distribution, position the company for continued growth during the seasonally strong fourth quarter and beyond.